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Securitization in Focus — September 2026

Douglas Gimple

Headlines

  • Single asset single borrower (SASB) issuance on pace to rival 2025 record level. 2026 YTD issuance has reached $75 billion, exceeding every full year production except 2021 and 2025. Office and industrials (data centers) lead the way, contributing $18 billion and $15 billion, respectively, accounting for roughly 45% of issuance. Others also contributed, with hotel, multifamily, retail and other contributing more than $7 billion each.1
     
  • Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicing update. Special servicing is the transfer of a troubled CMBS loan from a day-to-day master servicer to a specialized workout manager. SASB special servicing climbed to 9% in September, the highest level since 2021, while conduit special servicing reached a new high of 12%, well ahead of the COVID peak of 8.5%.1
     
  • Consumer update. Payrolls rose a weaker-than-expected 29,000 in September, driven by an outright decline in local government payrolls, a further slowdown in health care hiring and continued job losses in the office-based sector, specifically in technology-related industries and finance. The gain, combined with a 60,000 downward revision to the prior two months, pulled the three-month average pace of job growth down to 51,000. Real income growth slowed in 2026 while inflation has been ticking higher, a combination that could serve as a headwind to consumer health.

    Similarly, the personal savings rate has trended lower while personal spending growth has been somewhat weaker compared to 2025. US average gasoline prices are near all-time highs, pressuring consumers who are estimated to have spent roughly $400 more on gasoline compared to the same period in 2025. Rising interest rates have increased borrowing costs for consumers, putting pressure on credit card and student loan interest rates as well as new auto loans, while higher longer-term yields have further strained moving mortgage availability.1
     
  • ABS collateral performance. While some asset types have seen weakness, the overall trend is positive.1
    • Prime auto asset-backed securities (ABS). Net loss rates, default rates and delinquencies are down year-over-year.
    • Solar. The market remains pressured, with delinquencies reaching 4.28% (up 1.30%), net losses at 4.21% (up 1.16%) and defaults at 4.31% (up 0.89%). The upside? The solar ABS market is a very small component of the overall market.
    • Subprime auto ABS. Delinquencies remain elevated but have stabilized, with 60+ day delinquencies improving by 0.14% and net losses improving by 0.18%.
    • Credit card ABS. Net losses improved by 1.30% year-over-year and delinquencies have been flat.

Exhibit 1: Apart from interest rate sensitive mortgage-backed securities and riskier high-yield corporate debt, spreads remain tight across risk assets. (in basis points)

  Credit Card Asset-Backed Securities Auto Asset-Backed Securities Non-Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment Grade Corporates High Yield Corporates
Dec 31 2025 32.5 53.7 121.0 21.8 77.4 268.1
Jan 31 2026 31.1 48.8 111.7 15.7 72.5 263.6
Feb 28 2026 29.9 49.3 113.6 20.9 83.7 292.8
Mar 31 2026 32.4 53.9 119.1 23.9 88.7 320.2
Apr 30 2026 32.4 51.6 113.3 21.3 79.4 274.7
May 31 2026 29.9 47.2 108.9 22.0 71.3 256.2
Jun 30 2026 26.2 44.3 109.5 24.5 73.5 264.4
Jul 31 2026 25.1 42.9 110.8 31.0 77.8 279.4
Aug 31 2026 28.1 44.7 109.9 29.3 77.1 260.9
Sep 30 2026 25.8 42.7 110.3 43.2 79.7 312.8
             
YTD Minimum 23.7 39.4 105.3 13.8 70.6 247.7
YTD Maximum 34.2 56.4 121.0 44.6 92.7 338.1
YTD Average 29.2 47.7 111.6 23.4 77.4 273.3
10-year Minimum 16.2 24.1 69.4 7.0 70.6 247.7
10-year Maximum 263.1 378.3 347.9 132.3 381.1 1,099.1
10-year Average 40.5 58.9 123.6 37.7 109.0 369.4

Source: Bloomberg; data as of September 30, 2026.

Asset-Backed Securities Issuance1

  • Issuance in the ABS sector held steady from August production, delivering $27.5 billion in new deals, nearly matching August’s $27.2 billion in issuance. Year-to-date issuance for 2026 ($284 billion) remains well ahead of 2025 ($252.9 billion) and 2024 ($260.3 billion).
     
  • After dominating issuance in August (67.5%), auto ABS slowed to 50.3% of total ABS issuance in September as other market segments that had been quiet for a few months ramped back up, namely device payments and data centers. Four data center ABS deals came to the market, three from QTS and one from Vantage.
     
  • September issuance expectations were sizable, but rising rates across the curve resulted in a reduction of new deals compared to expectations.
     

Exhibit 2. Asset-Backed Securities Issuance Remain Strong Year to Date

Issuance in Billions of US Dollars, 2024 through Year-to-Date 2026

2026 ABS Issuance

Source: Deutsche Bank; data as of September 30, 2026.

 

Exhibit 3. Breakdown of Asset-Backed Securities Issuance Year to Date

Asset-Backed Securities Issuance

Source: Deutsche Bank; data as of September 30, 2026.

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Trends in September2

Sector trends

  • Overall delinquencies. +0.17% to 8.02%.
  • Delinquency rate. Year over year +0.79% (7.23% to 8.02%).
  • Serious delinquency rate. +0.18% month over month (7.69% to 7.87%). Represents the percentage of loans that are 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, real estate owned or non-performing.
  • The five largest newly delinquent loans included an eight-property studio-and-office portfolio in Los Angeles, a two-tower office complex in Houston, a beachfront hotel in Santa Monica, an office property in Denver and a single-tenant office property in Silicon Valley.

 

By property type level

  • Multifamily. +0.35% to 8.06%.
  • Office. +0.19% to 12.09%.
  • Lodging. +0.34% to 6.17%, marking the third consecutive month of increase.
  • Retail. -0.63% to 6.27%.
  • Industrials. Flat at 1.14%.

 

Issuance

  • Year-to-date non-agency CMBS supply has reached $133 billion, already surpassing 2024’s full-year total of $112 billion and running 16% ahead of the same period in 2025.

 

Exhibit 4. Overall Delinquencies Climbed in September, Maintaining the Up and Down Monthly Trend

CMBS Delinquencies—30+ Day Delinquencies (%)

Delinquencies

Source: Trepp; data as of September 30, 2026.

 

Exhibit 5. Year-to-Date Non-Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Issuance

Issuance in Billions of US Dollars

Non Agency RMBS Issuance

Source: Deutsche Bank; data as of September 30, 2026.

 

Non-Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS)

Much like other segments of the market, issuance in the non-agency RMBS market slowed with the staggering shift higher in rates. Issuance dropped from $19.4 billion in August to $15.3 billion in September, though issuance remains on pace to exceed prior year levels. Issuance is still dominated by non-qualified mortgage (QM) RMBS, which accounted for 39.6% of issuance in September. While below levels seen throughout much of the year, non-QM remained a meaningful component of overall issuance. Non-QM loans offer greater flexibility in borrower eligibility and documentation requirements than mortgages meeting Consumer Financial Protection Bureau standards.

 

Exhibit 6. Non-Agency RMBS Issuance

Issuance in Billions of US Dollars, Year-to-Date through September

Breakdown of RMBS Issuance

Source: Deutsche Bank; data as of September 30, 2026.

 

Exhibit 7. Breakdown of RMBS Issuance

Year-to-Date 2026

Breakdown of RMBS Issuance

Source: Deutsche Bank; data as of September 30, 2026.

 

1 Source: Deutsche Bank; data as of September 30, 2026.
2 Source: Trepp; data as of September 30, 2026. 

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