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Securitization in Focus — February 2026


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SFVegas takeaways (Structured Finance Association)

February issuance held up despite the typical SFVegas slowdown. Conference tone was broadly constructive, with expectations for range-bound spreads as demand limits widening — though further tightening looks less likely from current levels. Investors were more cautious on consumer credit (subprime and prime) and discussed AI as a potential risk factor. Digital infrastructure remained the focal point, but interest stayed broad across subprime auto, personal loans, student loans, aircraft loan/lease and solar loan/lease asset-backed securities (ABS). Post-Tricolor, participants also pointed to greater emphasis on enhanced pre- and post-close due diligence.

SASB mall liquidation hits top-rated bonds

A distressed-debt fund managed by Black Diamond Capital Management seized control of the Palisades Center (West Nyack, New York), triggering liquidation of the related single-asset single-borrower commercial mortgage-backed securities (SASB CMBS) deal. Top-rated bondholders reportedly recovered roughly 70 cents on the dollar, while lower tranches were wiped out — only the second instance of this outcome for the top of the capital stack since the financial crisis.

New York reassessment highlights valuation risk

Manhattan’s Worldwide Plaza was reassessed at roughly $345MM, down sharply from the $1.74B valuation used in the 2017 debt issuance. If a sale clears near that level, top-rated bondholders could face losses in the ~20% range. The $705MM commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) transaction was issued in 2017 on the 1989-vintage property spanning 49th to 50th streets.

Issuer commentary (earnings) 

Hertz Global Holdings (auto rental ABS)

Management said first-quarter trends in revenue and revenue per day are positive. The company completed its fleet refresh in 2025, and model year 2026 purchases met price and volume targets.

Bread Financial (credit-card ABS)

System-wide occupancy was near 90%. Strength in Las Vegas, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach was offset by softer results in Orlando, Hawaii and Asia Pacific. Contract sales declined 4% year over year, driven by a 10% drop in international sales; first-time buyer sales fell 9%.

Oportun (personal loan ABS)

Fourth-quarter 2025 originations declined 5.2% year over year and 3.3% quarter over quarter to $469MM. Management noted further tightening in credit by concentrating originations toward existing members. The managed portfolio declined 2.0% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter to $2.91B.

Synchrony Financial (credit-card/consumer ABS)

Management highlighted rising US power demand tied to AI, data centers and domestic manufacturing, alongside rapidly rising capacity prices and long build timelines for centralized generation. The company cited new agreements with retail electricity providers and increased interest in its distributed power plant model.

Asset-backed securities

Despite the typical SFVegas slowdown, February ABS issuance totaled $36.9B, the strongest month since October 2025 ($44.7B) and well above the prior three-year February average of $23.8B — an outlier supported by strong investor demand. Auto ABS remained the primary driver, representing roughly 47% of monthly volume. Credit-card ABS stayed on the sidelines, with no new deals since the start of the year, as issuers and investors continue to assess the proposed 10% credit-card APR cap. AI-linked issuance also remained elevated: Fiber Network ($1.7B) and Data Centers ($2.9B) exceeded last year’s monthly average ($2.1B). Year to date, data-center and fiber-network ABS issuance has more than doubled versus the first two months of 2025 ($7.4B vs $3.2B).

Monthly ABS Issuance ($)

ABS Monthly Issuance

February ABS Issuance (%)

ABS YTD Issuance

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

January issuance finished at $15.4B as several announced transactions priced late in the month, with some spillover into February. February issuance totaled $9.2B, and combined issuance for the first two months of 2026 ($24.6B) trails only the comparable period in 2025 ($33.3B) over the past several years. February was led by SASB ($6.4B), followed by conduit ($1.7B) and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation (CRE CLO) ($1.1B). Non-Agency CMBS issuance rebounded in 2025 amid returning institutional demand and an improving rate backdrop; while 2026 is tracking below last year’s pace, volume remains well above 2023 and 2024.

CMBS trends in February

Overall: CMBS delinquencies fell 33 bps in February to 7.14%, reversing January’s 17 bps increase. After reaching a record 12.34% in January, office delinquencies declined 114 bps to 11.20%, the third decline in the past four months.

30+ Day CMBS Delinquencies (%)

Delinquencies
  • By property type: Three of five major categories declined, led by office. Retail fell 74 bps to 6.30%, the lowest level since August 2024. Multifamily declined 9 bps to 6.85% and now sits 27 bps below its October 2025 peak (7.12%). Lodging rose 38 bps to 5.94%, rebounding from January’s low (the lowest since March 2024). Industrial increased 5 bps to 0.67%.
  • Year over year: The CMBS delinquency rate is up 84 bps (6.30% → 7.14%).
  • Serious delinquency: Loans 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, real estate owned (REO) or non-performing declined to 6.89% (from 7.09%).

Residential mortgage-backed securities

February issuance totaled $15.4B, modestly below January ($18.6B). Non-qualified mortgage (Non-QM) deals led in February, accounting for 48% of total issuance. Non-QM residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) do not meet Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidelines and allow more flexible eligibility and documentation. The “other” category — home-equity loans/lines and reverse mortgages — totaled $2.9B, representing 19% of February issuance and broadly consistent with the pace of recent years.

Monthly Non-Agency RMBS Issuance (%)

Monthly RMBS Issuance

Sources: Deutsche Bank, Trepp.

See diamond-hill.com/disclosures for a full copy of the disclaimer.

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of March 2026 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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